NCAA Tournament Regionals Preview
The Black Bears travel to Springfield, Mass, to face Cornell in Maine's first National Tournament appearance since 2012.
"Watch out for Maine."
That's how ESPN sportscaster John Buccigross signed off Sunday evening's National Tournament Selection Show, which placed the Maine Black Bears as the #2 seed in the Springfield, Massachusetts Regional.
To the relief of Black Bear Nation's wallets, the Tournament Selection Committee did not send Maine out west to regionals in either South Dakota or Missouri. Instead, they kept the Black Bears close to home, where they are set to drop the puck at the MassMutual Center for the program's first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2012 against the region's #3 seed Cornell Big Red. The other regional semifinal is between the Denver Pioneers and the Massachusetts Minutemen.
The state of Massachusetts is bracing for impact as another blue wave from the north is forecast to strike the state on Thursday. After Black Bear Nation turned Boston's TD Garden into a vast sea of blue last weekend in Maine's 4-1 loss to Boston University in the Hockey East semifinals, more of the same is expected inland this week. The traveling Alfonders up to the challenge of out-supporting the equally vocal and well-traveled Lynah Faithful from Cornell will once again look to bring the Alfond's famed home-ice advantage with them, going south.
Expecting the invasion of Mainers to descend upon western Massachusetts, UMass' Head Coach Greg Carvel took to Twitter to plead with Minutemen fans to buy up the remaining tickets to Thursday's single-admission double-header before the Mainiaks could get their hands on them.
Sorry, Greg, but nothing can halt Black Bear Nation from marching down south in the thousands as another sea of blue is expected to flood the streets of downtown Springfield.
Although last Friday's loss to BU was not the result Black Bear fans were hoping for, the on-ice performance, especially when at even-strength against the #2 team in the country, impressed many around the nation. Not only did Maine manage to skate with the feared Terriers, but they took it to BU for much of the game, outplaying them for significant periods of the hockey game.
After Maine battened down the hatches against an early BU siege, the Black Bears have had the majority of scoring opportunities beginning midway through the first period. They outshot the Terriers 33-18 in an impressive showing that was only missing the final goal-scoring touch.
The main difference between the Black Bears and Terriers on Friday night was that BU took lethal advantage of Maine's few mistakes, while the Black Bears couldn't execute on their chances with as much ruthlessness as BU. On top of this, they also ran into in-form goaltender Mathieu Caron, who stood on his head repeatedly, stealing the show in Boston and taking the game from the Black Bears.
Maine had their chances but just couldn't take them, stymied by Caron, and the wall of Terriers that desperately collapsed deep in front of their goal. Of note: Maine's offense has struggled to generate shots on goal this season when the opposition allows the Black Bears the perimeter of their offensive zone, collapsing the defensive structure, taking away the center of the ice, and closing down any shooting lanes.
When teams come out of their defensive shell to engage the Black Bears cycling the puck in the top of the zone, Maine’s skilled puck-moving defenseman have been excellent at utilizing their elite skating and soft hands to beat the opponent's forwards trying to cover the point. This opens up tons of free ice to find a lateral pass and clean shooting lane for a quick one-timer off the sticks of Maine's deadly snipers.
But when the opposition chooses to collapse their defensive structure, keeping a forest of bodies between the puck and the goal, Maine has struggled handling the puck in traffic as well as moving the puck quick enough to open up a shooting lane that would enable top-tier shooters an open sight of the goal. This was the case on Friday against BU, as the Terriers, protecting their third-period lead, frustrated the Black Bears by keeping an airtight structure that routinely blocked Maine shots.
This style, which big and physical teams tend to adopt, has been a thorn in Maine's side all season, severely negating the Black Bears' offensive production with thus impenetrable type of play.
Maine's regional semifinal opponent, the Cornell Big Red, is just that.
Big and oh-so red-hot.
It will be the ultimate test for Maine's offense, as Cornell's defense is the best in the nation. Cornell utilizes its physical and heavy presence to suffocate opposition offenses and grind its opponents into submission.
They have the best defense in the country this season, only allowing on average 1.91 goals per game and no more than two goals in a game in twenty-seven out of their thirty-three contests this year.
They may also have the best goaltender in the nation. #30 Ian Shane, the junior netminder for the Big Red, leads the country in goals-against average, only allowing 1.73 goals per game.
Cornell, revered as one of the best coached, most well-structured teams in the country, has always been a defensive juggernaut under 29th-year Head Coach Mike Schafer. He will lead the Big Red to their fourteenth National Tournament appearance under his command this Thursday. With Schafer at the helm, Cornell has gone an impressive 9-4 in regional semifinals, yet only being able to take the next step in making the Frozen Four once back in 2003.
But this year's Big Red may be one of Schafer's best-ever teams. Cornell has been one of the hottest programs in the nation, only losing twice since December 2nd on a run that saw them crowned champions of the ECAC last weekend.
With Shane in net and a defensively suffocating and soul-crushing defense in front of him, Maine's offense will have to be at the top of its game if the Black Bears are to keep their season going.
Much like how BU kept Maine's best shooters to the perimeter of the zone without any open shooting lanes available, Cornell's elite defense and goaltender will give the Black Bears the exterior of the offensive zone but congest the netfront area with a Big Red wall of shot-blocking bodies hungry to eat pucks.
This has been the Black Bears' Achilles heel this season, and nobody does it better than Cornell.
It is to be the ultimate test in the biggest game of the season, against the largest team in the country.
In order to keep the opposition goaltender from stealing the game yet again, the Black Bears will need a vastly improved net-front presence compared to what we saw against BU. Against the Terriers, Maine was often outmuscled for netfront real estate and therefore unable to screen Caron in net or look for redirections or rebounds to pounce on. The Black Bears will need to battle tooth and nail to force themselves to the front of the net and make life difficult for Shane in goal. Look for the likes of Nolan Renwick, Ben Poisson, Thomas Freel, and Harrison Scott to battle their way to netfront superiority.
Shane will save everything that he can see, so taking away his eyes and causing as much commotion as possible in front of him will be paramount for the Black Bears.
Dirty goals will become golden goals if Maine can establish this netfront drive.
To unlock the Cornell structure that aims to keep a mass of bodies between the net and the puck, Maine's lateral puck movement will have to be quick, crisp, confident, and decisive in order to move Cornell's defense around and create the slightest of open shooting lanes.
Maine will also need to use their superior to exploit open space when it is there, and when it isn’t, manufacture their own space by moving their feet and out-skating the Big Red, who shouldn’t be able to match Maine’s blistering pace.
However, the Black Bears cannot start throwing hopeful shots into the pile of bodies in front of the net. Doing so could allow the puck to catch Maine out of position and on the wrong side of the puck if a blocked shot ricocheting off a shin pad squirts out to center ice, allowing the Big Red to jump on the attack in quick transition.
Poise with the puck will be paramount.
While Cornell is notorious for its defensive stoutness, they can hurt Maine offensively as well. Scoring just seven goals less than Maine's own high-flying attack this season in three fewer games played, Cornell is quite capable of creating plenty of offense themselves with a wealth of considerable attacking prowess, ranking twelfth in the nation with 3.36 goals per game. Goalscorers such as #16 Gabriel Seger, #17 Dalton Bancroft, #14 Ryan Walsh, and #38 Jonothan Castagna will make Maine pay if the Black Bears are caught napping on the backend.
Although the Big Red played in the National Tournament last season, falling to Boston University in the Regional Final, for the most part, their defensive core is inexperienced and can be shaky with the puck. With four rookie defensemen usually in their lineup, without the puck, Cornell's defense is as watertight as they come. But with the puck on their sticks, their big d-men sometimes lack the poise and stick skill on the breakout, which can allow puck mistakes to seep into their game.
This could be a key weakness that the Black Bears can exploit. Against BU, when Maine was in their offensive zone with the puck on their sticks, the Terriers could sit back in their defensive structure and force Maine to play around the perimeter. Maine’s best scoring came when BU had the puck in their own end. A Black Bear winning a one-on-one puck battle and coming out of the corners with the puck, quickly turning forecheck into an offensive opportunity, was when Maine's best scoring chances came and when BU looked the most chaotic and exposed at the backend.
As odd as it sounds, Maine's offense is best against these defensively stalwart teams when it's the opposition that has the puck on their end, not the Black Bears.
Maine's ruthless and energetic forecheck can cause calamity and turnovers, catching the defense behind the puck, out of position, which leads to Maine's best scoring opportunities on net. Because of this, I would expect the Black Bears to dump the puck into Cornell's end much more often than carrying it in, forcing the Big Red to make a play and pouncing on the mistakes that may come.
Defensively for Maine, the Black Bears will need to rely heavily on Albin Boija to match Shane's expected brilliant performance. While Boija played well against BU, he was never able to steal a goal from the Terriers, who beat Boija three times from grade-a looks in the slot. It is expected that Shane will take a few would-be Maine goals away from the Black Bears, who will require Boija to do the same at the other end. If Maine is to come out victorious from this likely low-scoring goaltender battle, anticipate Boija to turn out the game of his life.
Do or die. Win or go home. This most memorable Maine season is in the balance.
A victory would be the program's first in the National Tournament since 2007.
While a loss would be a heartbreaking way to end this magical run.
One shift at a time. One period at a time. One game at a time.
I hope you have your dancing shoes on Black Bear Nation. Now, the real fun begins.
Watch out for Maine.
Here we go.