It's beginning to feel like playoff hockey weather in New England. The days are growing longer, the sun is shining brighter, and the air is starting to sit less harshly in the lungs.

While this weekend will see thousands in the region heading to Vermont for a final chance to hit the slopes, the Maine Black Bears journey deep into the Green Mountains is solely focused on taking care of business in Burlington against the Vermont Catamounts.

It may not be the playoffs, but this weekend's games possess playoff-like importance.

Mud season has arrived in Maine and the Black Bears hope that this final regular season road trip and penultimate weekend of Hockey East play will enable them to dig themselves out of the sludge, in which they've been sinking in for the entire month.

The Black Bears need to find their traction soon, or else their tremendously promising season could sputter out far too early.

Maine's campaign, which started as the best in over a decade, has slowed significantly in the past few weeks. Ever since the New Year, which the Black Bears began as the #1 team in the nation according to the Pairwise, but Maine's high-octane, chew-em’-up-and-spit-em’-out game has been ground down to a pulp by the gauntlet of a challenging second half of the season schedule.

After starting the season by winning sixteen of their first twenty-two games, the month of February has seen Maine only take three wins in eight. This includes being embarrassingly swept by bitter border rivals UNH before falling flat to Northeastern in last weekend's split that saw the Black Bears shutout on home ice for the first time since 2021.

But the Black Bears are only looking ahead, glad to be turning the page on the year's shortest month, with everything still to play for in March and the control of their own destiny still in their hands.

From a National Tournament perspective the Black Bears are still in good stead to make their first NCAA Tournament since 2012. While recent results have dropped Maine down to #9, nonetheless they still have a 97% chance of making the sixteen-team bracket.

The final two spots will be taken by the winners of the Atlantic Hockey and CCHA conference tournament champions as automatic qualifiers, narrowing down the field to at least fourteen at-large bids. The Black Bears now sit at the end of a tight pack of programs (#4 — #9), with very little between them.

The difference in RPI — Rating Percentage Index, which ranks every team based on wins, losses, and strength of schedule — between #4 Wisconsin and #9 Maine is only 0.012 points. Meanwhile, the RPI difference between #9 Maine and #10 Providence is 0.014 points, and the gap between #9 Maine and #14 Michigan is 0.017 points.

In layman's terms, this means that the Black Bears are much closer to the #4 team in the country than they are to the team directly behind them in the Pairwise.

Even with this said, should the Black Bears fail to win any of their final four remaining regular season games and get eliminated in their first Hockey East playoff game, then Maine suddenly would only has an 11% chance of going to the big dance.

But this is getting way ahead of ourselves as the Black Bears are still focusing on wrapping up their regular season with the goal of heading into the conference tournament with a first-round bye and a single-elimination quarterfinal game at the Alfond. The winner of this heads to Boston Garden for Hockey East's final four, a place Maine hasn't been to since 2012.

For the Black Bears to earn this ever-important first-round bye, they will have to finish between 3rd and 5th in the conference standings. In order to have this crucially important winner-takes-all quarterfinal elimination game on home ice, Maine must finish in 3rd or 4th.

Currently narrowly holding on to 3rd place, home-ice advantage is extra important for the Black Bears, who, with the support of the Alfond Faithful, have an 11-2-2 record (7-2-1 in Hockey East). Meanwhile, away from home, Maine has struggled, with an away record of 7-7-0 (4-6-0 in Hockey East). While all teams enjoy home-cooking, the extra boost that College Hockey's best fans give the Black Bears is apparent and could be the determining factor in a single-game elimination contest.

But for the Black Bears to earn this crucially important first-round bye and quarterfinal single-elimination game at the Alfond, Maine will need to win at least one on the road this weekend at Vermont.

The teams in hot-pursuit on their coattails are the Providence Friars and the UMass Minutemen, with the UNH Wildcats a bit more behind.

UNH's shot at knocking the Black Bears out of a first-round bye position is slim. UNH only has three games remaining, two of which are against BC, the best team in the country. Even if the Wildcats can sweep BC as well as win their final game against UMass-Lowell, they can still only end the season with their highest possible points total of 39, which means Maine would only need five points out of the remaining twelve that are up for grabs in order to surpass.

So with UNH teetering on the edge, it's likely going to come down to three teams: Maine, Providence, and UMass to secure the final two slots of hosting a quarterfinal game, since BC and BU have already earned their bye to the quarterfinal round and home-ice advantage. Maine, Providence, and UMass all have four games remaining, and all play the bottom three sides in the conference this weekend.

With the chances of Maine dropping all the way down to 6th and losing their first-round bye very slim, the attention is focused on securing home ice (3rd and 4th) for the quarterfinal round.

Maine must assume and expect Providence to sweep Merrimack and UMass to sweep Lowell this weekend. If both sweep and earn all six points, Maine would need at least three points from the weekend (one win) to stay tied with UMass at 4th place heading into the final weekend, where the Black Bears will take on those very Minutemen in what could be the series of the season.

Meanwhile, Providence's final weekend is tough with two home games to the third-best team in the country, BU, and the always difficult Northeastern. While the Friars can certainly sweep their last four games, their chances of doing so with the highest possible points (45) is not a certainty. It is much more likely that the Friars will finish the season with 42 or 43 points. This would require Maine to win three out of their last four remaining games to surpass the Friars with 44 points.

UMass, on the other hand, has to come up to Orono for their final weekend. If UMass sweeps Merrimack this weekend, the Minutemen will head up to their clash at the Alfond with 38 points. For Maine to keep pace with UMass before their showdown and stay even with them, the Black Bears would need at least three points (one win) from their series at Vermont.

So, all in all, splitting at Vermont this weekend is the absolute bare minimum for the Black Bears to keep pace and maintain control of their own destiny in pursuit of earning the home-ice guarantee.

But while calculating what exactly needs to be done to earn this or that can make one's head swim, the simple fact is that the Black Bears need to turn this skid around so they can ensure they don't enter the playoffs still in free fall. Home-ice advantage or a first-round bye isn't going to matter if Maine continues to trend in the wrong direction.

The Catamounts are fighting life and death for their own season, hoping to secure home ice for the first round of the playoffs. While Vermont's 12-15-3 record on the year isn't anything to write home about, it's impressive, considering their team was thrown together at the last minute this year.

Interim Head Coach Steve Wielder was only given the job weeks before the season. But that didn't stop the Catamounts' from having their best campaign in seven years. This rightly earned the removal of the interim tag from Wielder after Vermont's strong season pushed UVM to an impressive #29 in the Pairwise while playing with the ability to beat any team in the conference.

Last weekend, the Catamounts dropped both games to BC, but Vermont played impressively against the Eagles, especially on Saturday, where they created quite a bit of offense against the nation's best team. Although on paper, the Catamounts are the weakest team Maine has played in the past month, going on the road at this time of the year is always going to prove a difficult task. Nothing is ever guaranteed, and things can quickly get away from a team, as Maine learned at UNH.

Cannot take anybody lightly.

Offensively, the past four weeks have seen the Black Bears looking increasingly devoid of confidence. The high-octane, highlight-reel offensive production that carried the team in the first half of the season has dried up in the past month as opposition teams have adapted to shutting down Maine's best scorers.

The opposition, wary of the Black Bears’ ruthless one-timers, especially to Bradly Nadeau at the left circle, have succeeded in negating Maine's offense through collapsed defensive structures that look to cut-down shooting lanes and rely on blocked shots. The Black Bears, who have had many of their shots blocked in recent weeks, have struggled to get pucks through traffic, severely limiting their offense. Not only does this usually force the puck to ricochet out of the zone, allowing the opposition to pounce with quick transition play, but blocked shots can galvanize the opposition and create hesitation and overthinking among the Maine ranks.

The Black Bears need to be more assertive and dangerous with the puck on their sticks in order to break themselves out of the mental challenge, with which they've been battling. Head Coach Ben Barr mentioned on the midweek Black Bear Coach's Show that Maine isn't finding the same success as earlier on in the year, especially with one-timers on the power play, because the team is overthinking every pass, doubting themselves, and trying to make the perfect play. Often too hesitant and stationary with the puck on the cycle, Maine needs to open up shooting lanes by moving their feet, especially the defenseman at the point. Being more mobile will move the opponent's defensive structure around, opening up more shooting and passing lanes and not allowing the opposition to keep their attention focused on Maine's most lethal shooters, such as Bradly Nadeau.

Defensively, Maine will need improved maturity. The inexperienced Black Bears keep seeming to find new ways to lose every week. Before, it was poor puck management and taking undisciplined penalties. But last Saturday's loss to Northeastern saw Maine shoot themselves in the foot through poor line changes that kept tired Black Bear legs on the ice for minutes on end. Barr stressed that at this level, opposition sides will pick you apart if you get stuck on the ice for over a minute, as seen numerous times against Northeastern, who easily dissected the exhausted Black Bears. Getting the puck deep to allow fresh reinforcements will be crucial if Maine is to get back to being able to maintain the energy needed for outworking the opposition, which is so essential to their identity and success.

Maine needs to physically improve in all aspects, especially creating a more dynamic offense and improving on their details, such as finishing every hit on the forecheck, staying above the puck, and moving their feet. The more formidable hurdle to overcome will be making the necessary mental improvements.

Barr mentioned that every team plays with their tail between their legs at some point in a season. Still, for Maine to break out of their rut they need to use their recent struggles to galvanize and rally behind, instead of feeling down about themselves and accepting the situation. While it seems like every other team is surging at the moment, the Black Bears cannot let their recent struggles continue to hamper their belief in themselves. Maine must refind its swagger, embrace and enjoy doing all the difficult little things needed to win a hockey game and find consistent contributions from everyone in its lineup to change the tide against their recent struggles.

After Vermont heartbreakingly ended Maine's season last year in the opening round of the Hockey East playoffs, motivation will not be missing for Maine. The Black Bears need to use every ounce of energy they have. Whether it be redemption for last season or a new-found urgency to close out this year, the team that simply wants it more will be the team to come out on top.

One shift at a time, one game at a time.

The biggest game of the season is the next one.

Maine must bring the playoff urgency.

Time to fish or cut the bait.